Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 16.970593 20.553748 24.511524 29.181027 34.512324 40.382211 47.305677
2025-10-05 12.110214 16.864833 22.667902 30.153031 39.425724 50.407657 64.259144
2025-10-12 9.310582 14.519210 21.395801 30.879221 43.337038 58.854578 79.324670
2025-10-19 7.400530 12.769571 20.360342 31.433177 46.688234 66.461678 93.462958
2025-10-26 6.104498 11.553870 19.743974 32.284812 50.267610 74.351170 108.166231
2025-11-02 4.827235 10.062274 18.436594 31.889696 51.939608 79.633890 119.537701
2025-11-09 3.952006 9.025508 17.623135 32.042845 54.273030 85.806134 132.248927
2025-11-16 3.199417 8.025168 16.690254 31.847276 55.982016 91.082563 143.841858
2025-11-23 2.505269 6.959077 15.463216 30.998732 56.557713 94.664107 153.096446
2025-11-30 2.173099 6.555071 15.337969 31.927807 59.902995 102.389687 168.503343
2025-12-07 1.740757 5.810461 14.456507 31.439626 60.902583 106.597853 178.889362
2025-12-14 1.467890 5.366936 14.084827 31.792891 63.256371 112.912873 192.547115
2025-12-21 1.055129 4.444021 12.628165 30.089360 62.197999 114.140539 199.044946
2025-12-28 0.908609 4.217946 12.631346 31.163109 65.993224 123.219307 217.875760
2026-01-04 0.765898 3.947795 12.484755 31.913310 69.243622 131.535748 235.790399
2026-01-11 0.637668 3.669924 12.266632 32.481917 72.178424 139.428841 253.271203
2026-01-18 0.543340 3.471232 12.204463 33.355455 75.700379 148.399066 272.695442
2026-01-25 0.418739 3.083036 11.579003 32.950206 76.796116 153.337860 285.835076
2026-02-01 0.335706 2.820382 11.232751 33.107287 78.941933 160.100875 302.069562
2026-02-08 0.259610 2.533934 10.755885 32.906697 80.361603 165.643497 316.449807
2026-02-15 0.186414 2.192359 10.031719 32.036284 80.383619 168.730511 326.860138
2026-02-22 0.158693 2.102278 10.069446 32.989296 84.104571 178.425692 348.441799
2026-03-01 0.115682 1.856939 9.541938 32.488558 84.817357 182.784810 361.215919